Published 2026-01-16
If you're worried about whether you'll get a security clearance, the numbers are on your side. The security clearance denial rate is remarkably low. According to the DCSA FY21 Adjudications Year in Review report, the DoD Consolidated Adjudications Facility issued only 1,744 final denial or revocation letters out of hundreds of thousands of adjudicated cases [1]. That works out to roughly 0.2% of all cases resulting in a final denial - meaning over 99% of applicants are ultimately granted eligibility.
FY21 Denial Statistics by the Numbers
In Fiscal Year 2021, the DoD CAF processed adjudications for over 758,000 individuals across all military branches and cleared contractor personnel [1]. Here's what the numbers looked like:
- Final denials/revocations issued: 1,744
- Preliminary intent-to-deny letters issued: 16,380
- Overall denial rate: Approximately 0.2%
The gap between preliminary letters (16,380) and final denials (1,744) is significant. A preliminary intent-to-deny letter is not a final decision. It gives applicants the opportunity to respond, provide context, and submit mitigating evidence. The vast majority of people who receive a preliminary letter are ultimately granted eligibility after addressing the concerns raised.
Who Gets Adjudicated?
The FY21 report breaks down the customer base by military service and industry [1]:
| Customer | Cases | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Army | 230,588 | 30% |
| U.S. Navy | 220,883 | 29% |
| Industry (Contractors) | 180,928 | 24% |
| U.S. Air Force | 108,679 | 14% |
| 4th Estate (Defense Agencies) | 17,240 | 2% |
The Army and Navy together account for nearly 60% of all adjudicated cases, while cleared contractors make up about a quarter of the workload.
Processing Times in FY21
Beyond denial rates, the FY21 report tracked how quickly cases moved through adjudication [1]:
Initial investigations:
- T3 (Secret): 11 days average
- T5 (Top Secret): 11 days average
Reinvestigations:
- T3R (Secret reinvestigation): 32 days average
- T5R (Top Secret reinvestigation): 29 days average
These timelines represent the adjudication phase only, after the background investigation has been completed and submitted for review.
Understanding the Low Denial Rate
Why is the denial rate so low? A few factors contribute:
Self-selection: Many people with serious disqualifying issues never apply in the first place. If someone knows they have recent drug use, significant foreign ties, or other red flags, they often pursue career paths that don't require a clearance.
The whole-person concept: Adjudicators evaluate the totality of circumstances, not just isolated incidents. Past mistakes don't automatically result in denial if there's evidence of rehabilitation, changed behavior, or mitigating factors [2]. To learn more about what adjudicators look for and how concerns can be mitigated, see our guide on what disqualifies you from a security clearance.
Preliminary letter process: The system is designed to give applicants a chance to respond before a final decision. This results in many initial concerns being resolved through additional documentation or explanation.
What If You Receive a Preliminary Denial?
If you receive a preliminary intent-to-deny letter, it's not the end of the road. The letter will outline the specific concerns, and you'll have an opportunity to respond. Many applicants successfully address these concerns and receive their clearance.
If a final denial is issued after your response, you have the right to appeal to the PSAB [3]. The PSAB is an independent board that reviews appeals and can overturn adjudicative decisions.
The Bottom Line: Your Odds Are Good
The statistics show that final denials are rare. With a 99.8% approval rate, the vast majority of people who apply for a security clearance receive one. If you're honest on your SF-86, responsive to any concerns raised, and able to demonstrate that past issues have been addressed, there's a strong chance you'll be granted eligibility.
Don't let anxiety about your background keep you from pursuing a career that requires a clearance. The data shows that the system is designed to grant access to those who are trustworthy - not to find reasons to reject people.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. Every clearance case is evaluated individually based on its specific circumstances. If you have concerns about your eligibility, consider consulting with a security clearance attorney.
References
- ^ DoD CAF FY21 Adjudications Year in Review Annual Report. Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency. Accessed 2026-01-16.
- ^ SEAD 4: National Security Adjudicative Guidelines. Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Accessed 2026-01-08.
- ^ Personnel Security Appeals Board. Department of Defense Office of General Counsel. Accessed 2026-01-08.